Messi Leads Ballon d'Or Race Ahead of World Cup Final

Lionel Messi, the captain of Argentina, is the frontrunner to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, as indicated by Polymarket, with a 31.7% chance of securing the award. Messi played a crucial role in Argentina's progression to the World Cup final, providing two assists in their 2-1 victory against England.

The final will see Argentina face Spain. Following Messi, the second favorite is Barcelona winger Lamin Yamal, with a 30.9% probability of winning.

England's captain, Harry Kane, is given a 13.5% chance, while France's Ousmane Dembélé has a 3.1% chance. The winner of the Ballon d'Or will be announced at a gala on October 26, 2026.