Economists Warn Nigeria's Debt Servicing Could Reach 71.7%

Economists and business analysts have raised concerns about Nigeria's projected debt service-to-revenue ratio, which the Debt Management Office estimates could reach 71.7% by 2030. This projection is based on an exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar and a GDP growth of 4.8%.

In the first half of 2026, the Federal Government generated approximately N6.2 trillion in revenue, with domestic debt service at N5.28 trillion and external debt service at $1.82 billion. The World Bank's estimate of the debt-service-to-revenue ratio was about 124%, a figure disputed by the Ministry of Finance, which claims a direct interest-to-revenue ratio closer to 60%.

Dr Aliyu Audu emphasized the need for borrowing to be linked to productive projects, such as railway construction, to generate income and create jobs. Engr Michael Oluwagbemi noted that debt servicing has improved from 97% to between 60% and 65% of revenue since President Bola Tinubu took office, attributing this to debt refinancing and increased revenue.