Cocoa Prices Crash Below $4,000 per Ton Due to Oversupply and Weak Demand

Cocoa prices have plummeted below $4,000 per metric ton, driven by oversupply and other factors. The downward trend intensified in January, with prices currently around $3,780 per metric ton.

Major West African cocoa-producing countries have experienced a boost in supply, exceeding demand levels. Analysts project a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons for the 2025-2026 season, following a surplus of 267,000 metric tons in the previous season.

Factors contributing to the price decline include a decrease in European and Asian cocoa grinding, weakening demand, and abundant cocoa inventories. Cocoa futures have fallen significantly, with a full-year decline exceeding 50%.

Rabobank analysts expect cocoa prices to continue on a downward trend, favoring West African growing conditions. Nigeria, the fifth-largest cocoa producer, saw a 17-year increase in cocoa exports in December.