Nigeria's Crude Oil Underproduction Hits 35.3 Million Barrels

In the first five months of 2023, Nigeria underproduced crude oil by 35.3 million barrels, averaging 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This figure falls short of the federal government's budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd.

The total production during this period was approximately 242.6 million barrels, contrasting with the expected 277.8 million barrels, resulting in a shortfall of about 12.7 percent relative to the budget. Despite a gradual recovery in output, which reached 1.70 million bpd in May, the country still faces challenges in increasing production to support government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.

The 2026 federal budget is anchored on an oil price of $64.85 per barrel, with significant allocations for statutory transfers, debt servicing, and recurrent expenditures. The underproduction reflects ongoing issues such as crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.