Nigeria Faces 16.6 Million Barrel Oil Output Shortfall

In January and February 2026, Nigeria reported a significant crude oil output shortfall of 16.6 million barrels, as per data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The country aimed for a production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day according to its 2026 federal budget.

However, actual production totaled only 50.5 million barrels, with January output at 8.5 million barrels and February dropping to 41.6 million barrels. This resulted in an average daily output of 1.63 million barrels in January and 1.48 million barrels in February, falling short by approximately 210,000 and 360,000 barrels per day, respectively.

The decline was attributed to a broad-based drop in crude oil output across various terminals in the Niger Delta, including significant reductions at key export grades. Despite favorable global oil prices, Nigeria's inability to ramp up production has hindered its revenue potential.