Nigeria's Oil Revenue Surges Amid US-Iran Conflict

Since the onset of the US-Iran war in late February 2026, Nigeria is estimated to have grossed approximately N5 trillion from oil windfalls, driven by rising Brent crude prices that peaked above $115 per barrel in April. The 2026 budget, initially set at N58.47 trillion, was based on a conservative crude benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, later revised to N67.7 trillion with an increased benchmark of $75 per barrel announced by Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan in April.

Despite the surge in prices, Nigeria's crude oil production averaged around 1.6 million barrels per day, which is below the budgeted 1.84 million barrels per day. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that production was 1.68 million barrels per day in August, up from 1.67 million barrels per day in July.

The NUPRC attributed production declines to operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo fields. Overall, Nigeria produced 288 million barrels over six months, falling short of the projected 324 million barrels.