North-West and South-West Key to 2027 Presidential Race

A recent analysis by Vanguard has identified the North-West and South-West geopolitical zones as pivotal for the 2027 presidential election, with their combined 44,697,685 registered voters accounting for over 43 percent of Nigeria's total of 103,428,715 registered voters. The North-West has the largest share with 25,083,411 registered voters, followed by the South-West with 19,614,274.

Lagos leads the country with 7,488,633 registered voters. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the current president, benefited from these regions in the 2023 election, securing 2,542,979 votes in the South-West and 2,652,235 in the North-West.

However, he lost Lagos by 9,848 votes to Peter Obi, who garnered 582,454 votes against Tinubu's 572,606. The analysis emphasizes the need for candidates to avoid vote fragmentation, which aided Tinubu's victory in 2023.

Additionally, under Section 134 of the Constitution, a presidential candidate must secure the highest number of votes and at least one-quarter of votes in two-thirds of states, indicating that regional dominance alone is insufficient for victory.