Fitch Solutions Warns of El Niño's Impact on Cocoa Exports

Fitch Solutions has warned that El Niño weather conditions pose a significant threat to cocoa exports from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the world's leading cocoa producers. The report indicates that lower rainfall and higher temperatures during critical pod-development stages could reduce cocoa yields, adversely affecting export earnings, government revenues, and rural incomes.

Fitch forecasts cocoa production for the 2026/27 season at approximately 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana, with Côte d’Ivoire expected to see a year-on-year decline of about 17.5 percent. Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimates production at around 650,000 metric tonnes, down about 13 percent from the previous season due to disease pressure, ageing trees, and adverse weather.

The report also highlights that structural constraints, such as ageing tree stocks and the predominance of smallholder farmers, exacerbate the impact of weather-related risks. Cocoa prices have plummeted from nearly $13,000 per metric ton in 2024 to $3,000 in April 2026, leading to excess cocoa at ports and financial strain on farmers.