Fitch Ratings Upgrades Nigeria's Outlook to Positive

Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria's long-term issuer default ratings outlook to positive from stable while affirming the rating at 'B', as announced by the Federal Government on October 9. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, stated that this decision indicates a potential rating increase if current trends continue.

Fitch attributed this positive outlook to greater naira flexibility, disinflation, and a faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which reached $54.9 billion on September 25. The agency forecasts a current account surplus of 6.4 percent of GDP in 2026 and real GDP growth of 4.3 percent this year.

The government acknowledged challenges such as high inflation and low revenue but emphasized its commitment to reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. These reforms include a market-reflective FX regime, new tax laws, and structural reforms aimed at non-oil growth and job creation.