GTI Research Values Dangote Refinery at N493 Amid IPO

GTI Research has assessed the fair value of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) at approximately N493 per share, which is below the N525 IPO price during Africa's largest public share sale. This valuation was detailed in a report published on September 16, 2026, by analysts led by Mr. Abiodun Ogunniyi.

The N2.15 trillion IPO is open for subscription until October 13, 2026. GTI's analysis indicates that the IPO price exceeds both the firm's central estimate and base case, attributing this to an “unearned premium” reflecting anticipated future growth rather than current earnings.

The valuation suggests that the IPO is priced about 6.1% above the central estimate and 4.4% above the base case, while remaining approximately 21.9% below the bull-case scenario. GTI's valuation methodology primarily focuses on future growth, with 70% of the estimate derived from growth projections rather than current profits.