Moody’s Upgrades Nigeria's Outlook to Positive

Moody’s Investors Service has changed Nigeria's outlook from stable to positive while keeping its credit rating at B3, indicating a speculative status six notches below investment grade. The positive outlook suggests that an upgrade is more likely than a downgrade if current improvements continue.

Moody’s cited Nigeria's current-account surpluses, which are projected to remain around 6.1% of GDP in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, and an economic growth rate of approximately 4% in 2025, as factors contributing to this outlook. The Central Bank reported reserves near $53.3 billion as of late August.

Despite these improvements, Nigeria's fiscal situation remains concerning, with government revenue at about 10% of GDP in 2025. Moody’s emphasizes the need for better revenue collection to service debt effectively.

The finance minister described the outlook as validation of three years of reforms, while acknowledging that Nigeria remains a high-yield, high-risk borrower.