Ogunyemi Warns Fuel Subsidy Return Would Cripple 15 Northern States

Professor Tunji Ogunyemi of Obafemi Awolowo University has issued a stark warning about the fiscal consequences of reintroducing fuel subsidies, directly challenging African Democratic Congress presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar's 2027 campaign pledge to restore the measure. Speaking on the Open Forum 360 podcast hosted by Dare Adekanmbi on Friday, Ogunyemi predicted that about 15 states across northern Nigeria would face operational collapse within a three-month window if the subsidy were reinstated.

Ogunyemi's central argument centres on federation revenue distribution. He contends that bringing back petrol subsidies would significantly reduce the pool of funds available to states through the Federation Account—the primary mechanism through which the federal government allocates revenue to subnational governments.

According to the professor, this revenue squeeze would cripple state administrations and simultaneously compromise the federal government's capacity to meet its own spending obligations. The warning carries particular weight given Nigeria's ongoing fiscal challenges and the heavy dependence of northern states on federation allocations.

Ogunyemi noted that only four states in the country possess the financial capacity to sustain operations independently without federal funding, implying that the vast majority remain vulnerable to revenue shocks. His comments underscore the fiscal trade-offs inherent in subsidy policy, positioning fuel subsidies as a choice between immediate consumer relief and medium-term government solvency.

Ogunyemi's critique of Atiku's subsidy proposal framed the campaign promise as populist positioning rather than economically sound policy. The professor's intervention adds an academic voice to an ongoing debate about fuel subsidies, a policy area that has been central to Nigerian economic management and electoral politics for decades.

Atiku's pledge to reverse the subsidy removal implemented by the Tinubu administration continues to resonate with voters concerned about fuel costs and transportation expenses.