UBA, Zenith Bank, Access Corp Lead Analysts' Projections for Top Returns in Nigerian Banking Sector for 2026

A recent report by CardinalStone Research on Nigerian banks projects UBA, Zenith Bank, and Access Corp to deliver the strongest risk-adjusted returns among Tier-1 lenders in 2026. The analysis highlights factors such as earnings recovery, valuation gap improvement, and balance sheet enhancements as key drivers of performance.

UBA is expected to lead with a projected total return of 48.0%, followed by Zenith Bank at 40.6%. These returns are anticipated to be primarily driven by capital appreciation and dividend yield.

Analysts foresee cleaner balance sheets, limited loan impairments, renewed credit growth, and higher interest income across the sector in 2026. Despite initial concerns, Nigerian bank stocks showed strong performance in 2025, supported by strong net interest margins and improved macroeconomic conditions.

Access Corp's valuation discount remains a central theme in the report, attributed to a low price-to-book ratio and dividend concerns compared to its peers. The report also anticipates continued balance sheet repair, sustained real credit growth, and improved macroeconomic conditions supporting a re-rating of leading lenders in the Nigerian equity market.