Nigeria Leads Africa in Petrol Price Surge Amid Conflict

In the first half of 2026, Nigeria recorded a 39.5% increase in petrol prices, the sharpest rise across Africa, as reported by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN). This surge was attributed to the conflict involving Israel, Iran, and the United States, which began on February 28, 2026, causing global crude oil prices to exceed $100 per barrel and disrupting oil supply chains.

The conflict forced oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending shipping times. Nigeria's deregulated petrol market transmitted these global price shocks directly to consumers, making it the hardest hit in Africa, with price increases surpassing those in regional peers like Egypt, which saw a 14.3% rise.

Despite the price surge, the period marked a significant shift in Nigeria's downstream petroleum industry, with local refining increasing from 38.9% in 2025 to 81.7% by mid-2026, largely due to the operational scale-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.