World Bank forecasts 23% rise in commodity prices for 2026

The World Bank Group projects a 23% rise in global commodity prices in 2026, primarily due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, declining oil inventories, and disruptions to food supplies. This projection is detailed in the Commodity Markets Outlook report released on Wednesday.

The report warns that rising energy and food prices could exacerbate inflation, food insecurity, and hinder economic growth, especially in vulnerable countries. Energy prices are expected to increase by 32% in 2026, reversing three years of decline, with Brent crude oil averaging 91 dollars per barrel, up from 69 dollars in 2025.

Food commodity prices are projected to rise by 10% in 2026 and an additional 7% in 2027. The report attributes these increases to disruptions in grain shipments due to the Middle East conflict, threats from El Niño, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs.

It also warns that if conflicts escalate, the outlook could worsen, potentially leading to a food crisis.