Nigeria Struggles to Measure AfCFTA Trade Benefits

Two years after Nigeria commenced preferential trading under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), stakeholders have expressed concerns regarding the inability to credibly quantify the commercial benefits of the agreement. This is attributed to a lack of data, high production costs, and persistent non-tariff barriers.

While trade with Africa has increased, there is no evidence that this growth is driven by AfCFTA preferences. Nigeria recorded $6.1 billion in non-oil export receipts in 2025, an 11.5% increase from 2024.

However, determining how much of this activity is under AfCFTA terms versus other trade arrangements remains challenging. The first documented shipment under AfCFTA terms arrived at the Port of Mombasa, Kenya, in January 2025, consisting of synthetic filaments from Lucky Fibres Limited.

Dr. Chinyere Almona, director-general of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce & Industry, stated that without public records of consignments that received AfCFTA certificates of origin, Nigeria cannot quantify the agreement's commercial impact. The Nigeria Customs Service is responsible for issuing these certificates, but no public register currently exists.