Experts Warn of Increased Spending Ahead of 2027 Elections

Analysts have warned that the 2026-2027 election cycle could lead to a substantial surge in government spending, which may jeopardize Nigeria's recent achievements in debt management. According to a report, Nigeria's total public debt is expected to hit a record N159.28 trillion, with the government's debt-to-GDP ratio appearing healthy at 32.3% by 2026, below the 55% distress threshold.

However, the report highlights a critical paradox: Nigeria's revenue base remains structurally weak compared to its African peers, with a tax-to-GDP ratio significantly lower than countries like South Africa (24%), Kenya (16%), and Ghana (13%). The report indicates that the debt service-to-revenue ratio could reach an estimated 113% by early 2025, suggesting that the federal government will spend more on interest payments than it earns in total revenue.

Analysts emphasize the need for aggressive revenue mobilization rather than relying on debt management to ensure sustainable fiscal health.