Nigeria's Inflation Declines Amid Rising Food Prices

Analysts at Comercio Partners forecast that Nigeria's headline inflation will continue its downward trend, supported by easing core inflation and reduced exchange rate volatility. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that headline inflation decreased to 15.43% year-on-year in July 2026, down from 15.91% in June, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest slowdown this year.

Core inflation fell sharply to 14.97% in July from 15.92% in June, with a month-on-month drop to 0.15% from 1.66%. Despite these improvements, food inflation rose to 20.31% year-on-year in July from 17.52% in June, attributed to agricultural supply constraints and logistics costs.

The contribution of food and non-alcoholic beverages to headline inflation decreased from 6.37 percentage points in June to 6.18 in July. Overall, the combined reduction in contributions from major expenditure categories accounted for about 75% of the decline in headline inflation.

Comercio Partners expects gradual disinflation to continue, although rising political activity may pose challenges.