Atiku Abubakar's Petrol Price Plan Could Cost Nigeria ₦32tn

Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President, proposed a plan to reduce petrol prices in Nigeria to between ₦400 and ₦500 per litre, which analysts estimate could cost the country approximately ₦88.1 billion daily and ₦32.2 trillion annually. Dino Melaye, Deputy Director-General for Contact and Mobilisation in Atiku Abubakar’s 2027 Presidential Campaign Council, discussed this proposal on AIT’s Democracy Today.

The analysis assumes crude oil priced at $100 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,350/$, estimating that crude would need to be supplied to refiners at about $11.82 per barrel to support the proposed pump price. This discount raises concerns about potential issues such as arbitrage and rent-seeking.

The estimated annual cost of ₦32.2 trillion exceeds Nigeria's entire ₦32 trillion capital budget for 2026 and poses significant risks to the naira and foreign exchange earnings. The campaign has not clarified details regarding the program's financing or how to prevent diversion of crude.