CBN Reforms and Oil Price Surge Boost Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Outlook

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reforms, coupled with the surge in global oil prices, have significantly improved Nigeria's foreign exchange outlook. With Brent crude trading comfortably above the government's 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, around $69 per barrel, the country's near-term revenue expectations are on the rise.

The recent rally in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the wider Middle East region, has led to a 1.4% increase in Brent crude futures, reaching $69.34 per barrel. Analysts warn of potential disruptions in global energy supplies, with the possibility of Brent prices soaring to $91 per barrel or even higher in extreme scenarios.

The Nigerian foreign exchange market has seen a boost in dollar inflow, supporting the economy and reducing strains on the balance of payments. The Nigerian Naira has shown resilience, gaining significant ground against the US dollar, with the official exchange rate appreciating by 2.47% to N1,386.55 per dollar by the end of January 2026.

Analysts expect the Naira to maintain moderate gains, supported by steady oil receipts and stronger non-oil inflows.