Nigeria's H1 2026 Oil Production Misses Target by 38.4M Barrels

In the first half of 2026, Nigeria's crude oil production fell significantly below its budget target, resulting in a deficit of 38.4 million barrels and a potential gross revenue gap of about $2.49 billion. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported that total liquids production averaged 1.626 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to a budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd.

Despite exceeding its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, Nigeria underproduced by an average of 213,815 bpd, representing an 11.6 percent shortfall. The country produced an estimated 294.6 million barrels during this period, against a budget expectation of 333.0 million barrels.

President Bola Tinubu signed the N68.32 trillion 2026 Appropriation Act, which retained the fiscal assumptions of a $64.85 per barrel oil benchmark. Although production showed signs of recovery, June output remained 104,600 bpd below the budget benchmark, indicating ongoing challenges in meeting fiscal targets.