IEA Forecasts 8mbpd Drop in Global Oil Supplies by March

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global oil supplies will decline by 8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March 2026, as detailed in their oil market report. This anticipated decrease is attributed to significant supply disruptions caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

The flow of crude oil products through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to drop by around 20 mbpd, with current capacities being limited and storage in Gulf countries being reduced to at least 10 mbpd. The IEA notes that the extent of these losses will depend on the duration of the conflict.

Despite an estimated rise in global oil supplies by 1.1 mbpd in 2026, primarily from non-OPEC producers, the Middle East's disruptions will partially offset this increase. The report also highlights that IEA member countries have unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves available to the market to address these disruptions.