World Bank Forecasts 7mb/d Oil Supply Drop in Q2 2026

According to a new report by the World Bank, global oil supply is expected to decline sharply by 7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the second quarter of 2026, marking the steepest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. This projected drop is largely attributed to geopolitical tensions that are disrupting oil production in key regions, raising concerns about global energy stability.

The report indicates a full-year decline of 1.5 mb/d, or 1.4 percent, for 2026, despite expectations of a recovery later in the year as geopolitical tensions ease. OPEC's efforts to stabilize the market by adjusting production quotas and shutting down operations are also contributing to supply constraints.

On March 2, OPEC and its allies agreed to raise oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April to stabilize the global market, following a spike in crude prices above $100 per barrel on March 9 amid conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.