IEA: Global Oil Supply to Surpass Demand by 3.73mbpd in 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2026, as stated in its February oil market report. This projection comes amidst a slow rise in world oil demand, which the IEA expects to increase by 849,000 barrels per day in 2026, a downward revision from its January estimate of 932,000 bpd.

The report highlights Nigeria's failure to meet its crude oil production quota of 1.5 million bpd, marking six consecutive months of underperformance. Despite supply cuts in January, the IEA warns of a significant surplus in the global market.

OPEC's output was reported at 43.3 million bpd in January, down 160,000 bpd from December, remaining above the IEA's demand estimates. The agency has also trimmed its supply growth projection for 2026 from 2.5 million bpd to 2.4 million bpd.

OPEC is expected to meet on March 1 to decide on output adjustments.