Nigeria's OPEC Quota Missed Amid ₦48bn Security Deal

Nigeria has missed its OPEC oil production quota for the sixth consecutive month, with the current quota set at 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd). In January, the country managed to produce only 1.459 mbpd, falling short by 41,000 barrels daily.

This shortfall has significant financial implications, leading to billions of naira in lost revenue. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) renewed a ₦48 billion surveillance contract with Ekpemupolo, commonly known as Tompolo, in hopes of increasing production and ensuring compliance with OPEC.

However, the reality in the Niger Delta complicates these efforts, as oil theft remains rampant. Despite the contract, which is expected to cost ₦4 billion monthly, the infrastructure is outdated, and local security measures have proven ineffective.

Recent accusations suggest that members of the Nigerian Navy may be complicit in aiding thieves. The government faces a serious revenue shortfall, which could pressure the naira and impact the 2026 budget.