IMF Lowers Nigeria's 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.1%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria's economic growth forecast for 2026, reducing it from 4.4% to 4.1%, a cut of 0.3 percentage points. This adjustment was disclosed during a media briefing for the launch of the IMF's April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report.

Deniz Igan, Deputy Chief of the Macro-Financial Division at the IMF's Research Department, explained that the downgrade reflects rising costs in fuel, fertilizer, and shipping, which are expected to weigh on the non-oil sector despite elevated oil prices providing some support. The report also notes a decline in foreign aid and bilateral support, which is projected to drop by 16% to 28% by 2025.

The IMF anticipates that Nigeria's inflation rate will stand around 15.06% year-on-year as of February 2026, with the benchmark interest rate remaining elevated at 26.50%. The broader global economic outlook suggests a slowdown, with world output expected to decline from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026.