IMF Projects Nigeria's Inflation to Drop to 15.6% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria's annual average inflation to decline significantly to 15.6% in 2026, followed by a further decrease to 14.7% in 2027. This marks a notable reduction from the 23.0% average inflation recorded in 2025.

Analysts at Coronation Research attribute this cooling trend to key macro stabilisation measures, including increased exchange rate stability and enhanced domestic refining capacity, which are helping to alleviate persistent price pressures. However, risks such as higher energy and fertiliser costs, along with election-related spending, may hinder the pace of disinflation.

The IMF also forecasts Nigeria's gross domestic product to grow by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, supported by ongoing foreign exchange reforms and strong performance in the non-oil sector. Coronation Asset Management analysts support these projections, estimating the 2027 annual average inflation at 14.56%.

Despite structural challenges, economic policy reforms and expanded refining operations are expected to provide a foundation for long-term price moderation.