Jet Fuel Crisis to Boost Dangote Refinery Exports to Europe

The ongoing jet fuel crisis is expected to boost exports from Dangote Refinery to Europe, as disruptions in the Middle East have significantly tightened global jet fuel supplies. A report from Kpler indicates that European imports have decreased by nearly 300,000 barrels per day, with a typical destination being Northwest Europe.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to a 21% reduction in global seaborne jet fuel supply. As traditional backup suppliers in Asia redirect shipments to meet stronger regional demand, the availability of jet fuel in Europe has become increasingly constrained.

Dangote Refinery is projected to export approximately 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel by 2025, positioning West Africa as a significant long-term supplier. However, analysts caution that the supply from Dangote may not fully compensate for the shortfall created by the loss of Middle Eastern flows.

The report concludes that while there may be an increase in flows from West Africa, including Dangote, it is unlikely to completely replace lost Middle Eastern jet fuel supplies in the near term.