AfDB: Middle East Conflict May Cut Africa's Growth by 1.5%

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has issued a warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could lead to a 1.5% reduction in Africa's economic growth if the crisis continues for more than six months. Kelvin Urama, the bank's chief economist, made this announcement during the launch of the 2026 Africa's Macroeconomic Performance Outlook (MEO) report.

The AfDB noted that the immediate impact of the conflict would likely be a moderate shock, adding pressure to an already fragile economic outlook characterized by rising debt, declining foreign investment, and reduced development assistance. The scale of the impact will largely depend on the duration of the conflict; a prolonged crisis poses a greater risk to the continent's economic stability.

The AfDB emphasized that the economic repercussions of the Middle East conflict on Africa will depend significantly on how long it persists, with short-term effects potentially limiting growth and prolonged crises likely to weaken it substantially across the continent.