Nigeria's Debt to Drop to 35% of GDP by 2026, Says Moody's

Moody's analysts project that Nigeria's debt burden will decline to approximately 35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2026, down from an estimated 36.2% in 2025. As of September 30, 2025, Nigeria's total public debt is projected to reach N153.29 trillion (approximately $103.94 billion), marking a 0.59% increase from N152.40 trillion in June 2025, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO).

The analysis acknowledges the impact of tax reforms expected to gradually strengthen revenue mobilization by January 2026. Despite these improvements, Nigeria's economy faces challenges, including a modest growth rate, low income levels, and vulnerabilities in the oil sector.

Moody's assigns Nigeria a Ba2 rating, reflecting a somewhat diversified economy but also highlights ongoing issues such as weak law enforcement and low tax compliance. The outlook remains stable, with expectations that fiscal improvements will continue, although the government faces significant pressures from high interest payments and a depreciating naira.