NNPC Commits 186,000bpd to Debt as Forward-Sale Debt Hits N8.25trn

According to its 2025 audited financial statements, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has designated in excess of 186,000 barrels daily from crude oil production toward servicing debt obligations. Its forward-sale debt—borrowed funds secured by commitments of future oil deliveries—has surged to above N8.25 trillion, marking a substantial 33 percent jump from the N6.21 trillion recorded twelve months prior.

Three separate crude-backed financing arrangements underpin these liabilities: Project Gazelle, Project Leopard, and Project Leopard II. A five-year agreement finalized in December 2023, Gazelle commits 90,000 barrels daily toward repayment obligations.

By the reporting period, NNPC had accessed N4.9 trillion against the N5.1 trillion capacity of that facility, having already remitted N2.09 trillion. Collectively, these three initiatives mobilized substantial naira sums predicated on guaranteed future production allocations.

The mounting ratio of debt obligations relative to output imposes considerable strain on NNPC's ability to generate cash flows. Since nearly one-fifth of daily production goes toward loan servicing, reduced quantities remain accessible for creating additional state revenue.

During 2025, the company's revenue contracted by 23.4 percent, reaching N34.52 trillion versus N45.08 trillion in the prior twelve months—a shortfall approximating N10.56 trillion in yearly sales. Yet despite declining revenues, NNPC's pre-tax earnings rose 18.3 percent to N11.31 trillion, with profit net of taxes climbing 32.7 percent to N7.18 trillion.

Achievement of these gains resulted from curtailing operational overhead and recapturing amounts previously deducted as unrecoverable. Nonetheless, existing financing arrangements have claimed the preponderance of forthcoming production volumes, substantially restricting room for developing incremental revenue streams or absorbing any production decline scenarios.