Winning Formula for Nigeria's Presidential Elections

The article outlines the winning formula for presidential elections in Nigeria, as presented in the forthcoming book ‘Anatomy of Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election’, set for publication in the last week of October 2026. It asserts that a candidate must secure significant votes from two of the three major ethnic blocs: the Hausa/Fulani, the Igbo, and the Yoruba.

This "two out of three" formula has been consistent since 1999, with every presidential winner obtaining substantial support from two of these blocs. The article provides historical context, noting that in 1999, President Olusegun Obasanjo won despite losing in his home zone by gaining significant votes in the core north and south-east.

In contrast, Gen Muhammadu Buhari, who performed well in the core north, could not secure the presidency as he only achieved "one out of three." The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) did not release state-by-state results for the 2007 election, which is noted as one of the most muddled elections.