Nigerian Government to Resume Petrol and Diesel Imports, Impacting Dangote Refinery's Market Dominance

The Nigerian government is set to restart the issuance of petrol and diesel import permits in early to mid-February 2026, signaling a shift in the downstream market dynamics. This decision, made by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), comes amid concerns about tightening fuel supply and market conditions.

Dangote Refinery, a major player in the industry, has faced challenges as its crude deliveries dropped to around 250,000 barrels per day in January, down from 350,000 barrels per day in December. The refinery's lower run rate and maintenance activities have raised concerns about potential product shortfalls.

Despite these challenges, Dangote Group remains committed to its growth strategy, aiming to expand its refinery capacity, fertilizer output, and cement production. The issuance of new import permits is expected to provide relief to the market and supplement domestic supply, although it may dilute Dangote Refinery's market dominance.