UBS Revises Brent Crude Price Forecast to $110 Per Barrel

UBS has revised its forecast for Brent Crude prices, predicting they could reach $110 per barrel by year-end, up from $100. The bank attributes this increase to ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East, rising transportation costs, and uncertainty regarding global petroleum inventories.

UBS has also adjusted its Brent forecasts for 2027, estimating prices of $95 per barrel in March, $90 in June, and $85 in September, each reflecting a $5 increase from previous projections. The report indicates that while Middle Eastern crude shipments have improved, they remain below pre-conflict levels involving Iran.

In October, at least 30 attacks on commercial vessels were reported in the Strait of Hormuz, raising marine insurance costs and complicating tanker scheduling. Freight costs for transporting oil from the Middle East to China have surged to approximately $30 to $40 per barrel.

Additionally, global petroleum inventories have declined by over 500 million barrels since February, with emergency reserves providing only temporary relief against supply disruptions.