Nigerian Stock Market to See Modest Returns in H2 2026

Prof Uche Uwaleke, a capital market economist, predicts that the Nigerian stock market will yield a modest but attractive return in the second half of 2026, following an extraordinary 47.4% return in the first half of the year. His remarks were made during the ASAM webinar series themed “Mid-year Macro-economic Review & Outlook for H2 2026.” Uwaleke identified several catalysts for market performance, including the listing of Dangote Refinery, decisions by FTSE Russell, cross-border listings, and corporate earnings.

He also mentioned the potential for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to increase its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) in the lead-up to the elections, as historical trends suggest inflation tends to rise due to pre-election spending. Uwaleke explained the inverse relationship between interest rates and stock market performance, noting that a hike in interest rates would negatively impact equities but benefit the fixed income market.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, Director-General of the SEC, indicated ongoing engagement with foreign investors regarding Nigeria’s T+1 settlement issues.