World Bank Lowers SSA Growth Forecast to 4.0% for 2026

The World Bank's latest forecast projects Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) growth to decline to 4.0% in 2026, with a recovery to an average of 4.4% in 2027 and 2028. Real per capita GDP growth in SSA is expected to remain at 1.6% in 2026, firming to an average of 2.0% per year from 2027 to 2028.

The report indicates that higher energy prices will benefit oil-exporting countries, particularly Nigeria and Angola. Conversely, non-oil export economies will face challenges from increased fuel, fertilizer, and transport costs, which are expected to drive inflation, especially in food prices.

The report also highlights that government debt poses significant challenges, leading to higher interest rates and debt service payments, increasing the likelihood of debt distress. The forecast reflects a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points due to the negative impacts of conflicts in the Middle East, which are expected to outweigh existing growth drivers, including structural reforms and recent trade agreements.