World Bank Lowers Nigeria's Growth Forecast to 4.10%

The World Bank has adjusted Nigeria's economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.10%, down from the previous forecast of 4.40%. This revision is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, particularly following conflicts in the Middle East, and volatility in oil prices.

The April 2026 Economic Outlook Update notes that these factors threaten to dampen Nigeria's economy. The report emphasizes that persistent uncertainties in the global economy and the recent U.S.-Iran tensions have led to significant oil shocks, affecting domestic economic conditions, increasing transport and logistics costs, and exerting upward inflationary pressures.

Despite the downgrade, analysts remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to the Central Bank of Nigeria's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remaining above the expansion threshold of 50 points. However, the PMI has shown a decline from 56.40 in February to 53.20 in March, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum.

The report also highlights the need for stable policies to support key sectors like agriculture and oil.