Nigeria's Banditry Crisis: Rising Violence and Insecurity

Nigeria is experiencing a critical banditry crisis characterized by a significant rise in incidents and casualties. In 2025, there were 599 reported incidents resulting in 2,742 casualties, marking a 134% increase in incidents and a 74% increase in casualties compared to the previous year.

This escalation reflects deeper structural challenges within the state, as the government's limited capacity to ensure security has created a vacuum that allows armed groups to thrive. The breakdown of the social contract, as articulated by Thomas Hobbes, suggests that the state's legitimacy relies on its ability to maintain order and public safety.

When this fails, citizens withdraw their cooperation, leading to survival strategies that include negotiating with bandits. The case of St.

Mary's Catholic College in Niger State, which experienced mass abductions despite credible intelligence about impending attacks, highlights the ineffectiveness of government responses and the erosion of public confidence in security provisions. This cycle of insecurity continues to undermine the legitimacy of the Nigerian state.