Nigeria's Economic Outlook Strengthens Amid Oil Price Surge

A report indicates that Nigeria is benefiting from a significant rise in crude oil prices, which surged to $71.96 per barrel in February, marking a 45.4% increase to $104.60 per barrel in March. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) noted that Nigeria's economic outlook has strengthened, with expectations of real GDP growth at 4.1% by 2025 and healthy growth anticipated in 2026, supported by higher oil prices, structural reforms, and infrastructure investments.

Despite these positive indicators, Nigeria has not fully capitalized on the price rally, as production remains below recent levels. OPEC's assessment shows Nigeria's crude oil production averaging 1.51 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025, with slight declines projected in early 2026.

The report highlights that while the rig count increased from 15 in February to 17 in March, production recovery is lagging, raising concerns about domestic fuel prices and inflation in the post-subsidy reform environment.