Nigeria's Oil Revenue Falls N7.88 Trillion Below Target

In the third quarter of 2025, Nigeria's oil revenue fell significantly short of budget expectations, recording a total of N4.87 trillion, which is N7.88 trillion below the budget target and represents a 61.8% shortfall against quarterly projections. This weak performance occurred amid rising debt service obligations and a persistent fiscal deficit.

The Federal Government is making ongoing efforts to strengthen non-oil revenue generation through tax reforms and improved collection methods. According to the Budget Office, the projected gross federal revenue for 2025 is N78.08 trillion, with oil revenue expected to contribute N51.05 trillion, accounting for 65.38% of the total projected revenue.

Although actual oil revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year growth of 5.41%, it still reflects underperformance relative to fiscal expectations. Major revenue lines, including royalties and licensing earnings, recorded significant shortfalls, with oil revenue streams exceeding expectations during the period.

Nigeria's fiscal framework remains heavily dependent on oil revenue, despite efforts to diversify and reduce exposure to volatile global oil markets.