Nigeria's Economy Faces Dual Impact from Rising Oil Prices

As of September 16, Brent crude oil prices were trading between $107 and $108 per barrel, significantly above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. Nigeria's current crude production stands at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, which is below the budget assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day.

Economist Samuel Diala stated that the critical issue is not just the high crude prices but how much of the additional revenue will reach government finances, considering potential offsets from rising domestic energy and import costs. Dr. Muda Yusuf, Founder and CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, noted that while Nigeria could benefit from higher export earnings and government revenue, these gains might be diminished by increasing domestic energy costs.

Additionally, economist Mike Akannor warned that the rise in crude prices could lead to higher living costs as refiners adjust to international market conditions.