Stanbic IBTC Warns External Shocks Could Impede Nigeria's Growth Despite Improved Fundamentals

Stanbic IBTC, through its asset management team led by Mr. Abdul Azeez, cautioned that external shocks like fluctuating oil prices and global political developments could disrupt Nigeria's economic growth trajectory by 2026.

While acknowledging positive macroeconomic fundamentals, the analysts emphasized the country's vulnerability to external factors, stressing the importance of sustained reforms, fiscal discipline, and oil market performance for long-term stability. Despite ongoing structural adjustments and improved investor sentiment, Nigeria's heavy reliance on oil exports and government revenue poses challenges, with a fiscal breakeven oil price below $50 per barrel.

The analysts projected Nigeria's GDP growth to range between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026, supported by moderate inflation and exchange rate stability, but highlighted persistent external risks as key determinants of the economic outlook.