Nigeria Faces Rising Bread Prices as US Wheat Soars

Bread prices in Nigeria are anticipated to increase as the price of hard red winter (HRW) wheat in the US has reached its highest level in almost two years. This surge is attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions and geopolitical unrest, which have put direct pressure on Nigerian bakers who rely on US wheat.

The current demand for wheat in Nigeria is projected to reach a record 7.2 million tons, making it the fifth largest market for US wheat globally. However, local production meets less than 5% of Nigeria's wheat needs, forcing millers to turn to more expensive imports from Australia and the Black Sea region.

The ongoing drought in the US Great Plains has severely impacted wheat crop conditions, with only 19% of the crop reported in good to excellent condition, down from 45% a year ago. This situation is exacerbated by rising shipping insurance costs due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading local bakeries to consider reducing loaf sizes to maintain prices.