Nigeria Faces Health Risks from El Niño Heatwave Projections

Nigeria is at risk of serious health impacts from extreme heat as a strengthening El Niño climate pattern raises concerns about rising temperatures and altered rainfall. Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab project that Nigeria could experience an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 if the forecast conditions occur.

This estimate, published in September, places Nigeria among the countries expected to suffer the highest number of additional heat-related deaths during this period. The World Meteorological Organisation confirmed on September 3 that El Niño had become firmly established and is expected to strengthen into a very strong event, influencing global weather patterns into early 2027.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency also confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event in its August 2026 climate update. While El Niño affects weather patterns globally, its impact on Nigeria could lead to extreme heat, threatening human health, agriculture, and essential services.