CBN May Hold or Raise MPR Amid Rising Inflation Risks

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to either hold or increase the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) during the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, following a 50 basis point rate cut on February 26, 2026. This decision is influenced by renewed inflationary pressures, particularly due to rising energy costs and disruptions in the global oil market.

Headline inflation has resumed an upward trend, reaching 15.69% in April 2026, while core inflation rose to 4.03%. The CBN cites sustained disinflation as a reason for the previous rate cut, but current conditions suggest a cautious stance towards further easing.

The naira remains stable within a range of N1,350 to N1,370, supported by foreign exchange reserves that briefly crossed the $50 billion mark in March 2026 before retreating to $48 billion. The MPC is likely to wait for clearer signs of sustained reserve accretion before considering further easing, given the ongoing pressures from global crude oil prices affecting domestic fuel costs.