Kwara North to Become Largest Voting Bloc by 2027

A pro-democracy group, convened by Abdulrazaq Hamzat, has projected that Kwara North will emerge as the largest voting bloc in the 2027 general elections, surpassing Kwara Central for the first time in the state's political history. The group's analysis indicates a steady decline in Kwara Central's share of the statewide vote, which fell from 52 percent in 1999 to 39 percent in 2023, a reduction of 13 percentage points.

In contrast, Kwara North's share increased from 24 percent in 1999 to 36 percent in 2023, marking a growth of 12 percentage points. The analysis notes that Kwara South maintained a relatively stable share, fluctuating between 24 and 26 percent.

The narrowing gap between Kwara Central and Kwara North, now just four percentage points, signals a significant shift in the state's electoral balance, attributed to demographic changes and increased voter engagement in Kwara North. The group anticipates that Kwara North will secure 38 to 39 percent of the total vote in 2027, while Kwara Central may decline to 37 to 38 percent.