JPMorgan Reports Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels

Middle East crude oil exports have recovered to approximately 98% of pre-war levels, with shipments reaching 17.5 million barrels per day, as reported by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a note dated September 29. This increase is attributed to more tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, despite ongoing security risks in the region.

However, the recovery in crude shipments has not led to a corresponding decrease in crude oil prices, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel, significantly higher than the $72.48 per barrel price on February 27, the day before the war began. Refined petroleum product shipments have only reached about 3 million barrels per day, or 58% of pre-war volumes.

JPMorgan cautioned that the increased tanker crossings do not indicate improved security but reflect the oil industry's resilience amid risks. The report also noted that Nigeria's dependence on imported refined petroleum products has decreased due to domestic production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, though international price movements still impact the country's downstream petroleum market.