Kpler Reports 2 Billion Barrels Lost Due to Middle East War

The ongoing war in the Middle East has resulted in cumulative crude oil and condensate production outages exceeding 2 billion barrels, with approximately 5 million barrels per day of output still offline as of October 6, according to energy intelligence firm Kpler. The report indicates that Iran is responsible for a significant portion of these production outages.

While total Middle Eastern crude oil and condensate exports have temporarily returned to pre-war levels, production in the United Arab Emirates has surpassed its pre-war output, and Saudi Arabia's production approached its capacity of 12 million barrels per day by the end of September. However, Kpler estimates that 5 million barrels per day remain offline compared to February 2026 levels.

The report also highlights the uncertainty surrounding Saudi Arabia's oil supply outlook due to potential further attacks on its infrastructure, particularly following Houthi strikes on airports and refineries. Kpler expects Saudi Arabia's crude supply to average around 9 million barrels per day in October.