Dangote Group forecasts Nigeria's oil output to hit 1.72 million bpd in Q4 2026

The Dangote Group projects that Nigeria's crude oil production will increase to 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an average output expected to be 1.62 million bpd for the entire year. This projection is detailed in the group's H1 2026 Economic Report, which anticipates production rising from approximately 1.55 million bpd in Q2 to 1.70 million bpd in Q3, before further increasing in Q4.

The report also estimates that Brent crude oil prices will average around $90 per barrel in 2026, with a decline to $85 per barrel in Q4 as geopolitical tensions ease. Nigeria's crude oil output remained above 1.5 million bpd for three consecutive months in July 2026.

The report indicates that Nigeria aims to achieve a production target of 3 million bpd by 2030, with current reserves reported at 37.01 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate as of January 1, 2026.