Nigeria's 2026 Budget: N68.32 Trillion with Major Gaps

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed the N68.32 trillion Appropriation Act for 2026, marking a significant fiscal milestone for Nigeria. The budget reflects the government's commitment to sustaining economic reforms, expanding infrastructure, and strengthening security.

However, it raises fundamental questions regarding the realism of Nigeria's financial projections. The budget anticipates total expenditures of N68.32 trillion against expected revenues of N36.87 trillion, resulting in a financing gap of N31.45 trillion.

This gap indicates that the government plans to finance 53.9% of its expenditures through borrowing, leading to a projected fiscal deficit of 6.4% of GDP, which exceeds the 3% ceiling set by the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Analysts express concerns over the government's revenue projections, particularly given past underperformance in revenue collection.

The budget relies heavily on oil revenues, with assumptions of production at 1.84 million barrels per day and a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, which are subject to significant uncertainties. The government also seeks to enhance non-oil revenue through tax reforms, but analysts caution that immediate gains from these reforms may be limited.